Which airports are the busiest in the world? What is the status of air travel recovery after the 2020 pandemic? How are passenger and cargo flows changing globally? These and many other questions are answered by data published this year by Airports Council International (ACI) World, the largest trade association with 757 members in 191 countries worldwide.

The database, based on more than 2,700 airports, allows global traffic to be estimated at 8.7 billion passengers, or 94.2 per cent compared to pre-pandemic levels with a growth of 30.5 per cent over 2022. The movement of people sails towards full recovery in 2024, with 9.7 billion, above 2019 levels (106%) for the first time since the pandemic, according to forecasts.

The market trends

“Global air travel in 2023 was mainly fuelled by the international segment, driven by many factors. These included the benefits from re-openings in China and an increasing inclination to travel, despite macroeconomic conditions,” noted Luis Felipe de Oliveira, outgoing ACI World CEO who will be replaced by Justin Erbacci as of 1 September. 

For the cargo segment, on the other hand, its numbers are still in the negative. At close 115 million tonnes, freight transport decreased in 2023 year-on-year (-1.8%) and compared to 2019 (-4.9%). The decline can be attributed to continuing geopolitical tensions and disruptions in global supply chains and trade. After some ups and downs, the final surpassing of pre-pandemic levels is expected one year later than for passenger flights, i.e. in 2025, with 130.3 million tonnes of cargo transiting in our skies.

Macroeconomic factors, such as high global inflation, slowing global GDP and pessimistic confidence levels in the economy, as well as geopolitical tensions, pose significant risks and uncertainties on the outlook for the coming years. Before the pandemic, for example, the expected passenger volume for 2023 was 10.5 billion. ACI World, however, suggests a doubling of total passengers by 2042 and growth by 2.5 times by 2052.

“In the long term, the market dynamic for passengers is expected to shift from advanced to emerging and developing economies as they experience significant urbanisation and demographic increases, often combined with rapid economic growth and with a favourable impact on disposable income and willingness to travel,” de Oliveira explains.

The rankings

The numbers compiled by ACI World show that the Asia-Pacific and Middle East hubs are strengthening and continued to emerge in 2023, while some confirmations remain: the American leadership and the unrelenting strength of Istanbul and New Delhi. In particular: 

• Atlanta's leadership as the world's busiest airport (104.6 million passengers) continues, although still below 2019 levels (-5.3%). It is one of five US airports in the top 10, along with Dallas, Denver, Los Angeles and Chicago.
  
  Georgia's capital is only the seventh largest metropolitan area in the United States and not even among the top 40 in the world, but the airport has held the world record for passenger traffic continuously since 1998 except for 2020. It is a hub for domestic and international travel (150 destinations) thanks to its strategic location within easy reach of New York, Dallas, Houston and Chicago. It is well connected to major highways and railways and is only 16 kilometres from the city centre. It is also the hub of Delta Airlines and offers state-of-the-art facilities; government and businesses have always supported investment in the airport since 1920.
   
• Dubai climbs to second place for the first time, surpassing Dallas and is the first port of call in terms of international passenger transit (86.9 million total).
  
  Together with London (Heathrow) and Istanbul, it is one of three airports in both rankings. It has a capacity of 90 million passengers a year, over three terminals for 262 reachable destinations and is the reference hub for Emirates Airline. However, the airport will be closed when the expansion of the United Arab Emirates’ new mega airport, Al-Maktoum, is completed.
   
• Tokyo Haneda makes the biggest leap, from 16th place to fifth, between 2022 and 2023 (+55.1%), although it is still in deficit compared to 2019 (-7.9%). In the international segment, it is Incheon Airport in Korea that makes the greatest progress, tripling its passengers (55.7 million) and moving from 32nd to fifth place.
• Hong Kong and Memphis retain the top two positions for cargo, while Shanghai overtakes Anchorage. Seemingly far from the busiest routes, the airport in Alaska remains the one with the largest increase over the pre-Covid period (+20.7%).
  
  Located halfway between Hong Kong and the contiguous United States, it is a perfect port of call for cargo transshipment, crew changes and refuelling. Leaving with less petrol, in fact, allows more goods to be transported, plus the price of fuel is lower thanks to tax breaks applied there. These advantages mean that many carriers departing from China have chosen Anchorage as a stopover, instead of Shanghai or Hong Kong itself, delivering Asian goods required in the US more quickly in the Covid era.
• The ratio of international to domestic (40-60%) of total flights has almost returned to pre-pandemic levels (42-48% in 2019). The restrictions had led to a collapse in international flights, which dropped by 26-74% in 2020. 
   

The comment

“The rankings underline the crucial role of these transport hubs in global connectivity, trade and economic development. Airports continue to prove their resilience and adaptability amidst the evolving challenges of global transport,” de Olivera explained. “Responsible investment in existing and new infrastructure remains crucial to ensure that capacity growth can be sustainably addressed to maximise the social and economic benefits of aviation.”

An earlier forecast by ACI World estimated the investment needed to expand and improve airport infrastructure worldwide between now and 2050 at USD 2,400 million.

Getting to the airport by booking an autonomous electric shuttle or a taxi-drone from your home, hotel or station to take you directly to the micro-terminal. Entrusting your luggage to a personalised collection and delivery service and get through the boarding process without interruption, with biometric recognition. Buying a meal on e-commerce and receiving it from a robo-delivery in the lounge, waiting for the gate call with a notification on your phone.

It is a possible portrait of the intermodal, digital, personalised and green experience available in the world's airports to every user in the next 20 to 30 years, open and integrated with the urban fabric, automated and powered by green energy. 

The scenario is described in the report The evolution of airports - A flight path to 2050 prepared by Oliver Wyman, the Airports Council International (ACI World) for the world's airports and the Centre for Sustainable Global Tourism (STGC), incubated by the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Tourism.

Amidst the challenges of innovation, decarbonisation and increasing demand, the authors predict that, by 2030, the global commercial fleet will expand by 33 per cent to over 36,000 aircraft; passenger traffic will grow by 5.8 per cent each year between 2022 and 2040 and 19 billion travellers will pass through the world's airports each year by 2040. So how will airports change by then? Here arethe five megatrends identified by the report. 

Zero net emissions

Aviation contributes about 2 per cent of total emissions and airports account for 2-5 per cent of this share. Aiming for the Net Zero 2050 objective set by the Paris Agreement, airports will become hubs and producers of green energy, capable of delivering available resources externally and adding this revenue stream to their business model. They will have to reduce consumption in their ecosystems, use CO₂ capture (CCUS) technologies, adopt sustainable lighting and air conditioning (they consume 46% of energy).

Facilitating the availability of alternative fuels to flight operators will become crucial, with the start of the commercialisation of SAF by 2030. By then, there will be 5.4 billion gallons of SAF available, but at least 16 billion gallons would be needed to keep emissions at the 2019 level.

Service vehicles at the airport will be electrified, as will flights on short-haul routes. These, together with hydrogen-based technologies expected around 2035, should help reduce noise pollution. As airports develop new solutions, sustainable construction techniques and retrofitting, consideration should be given to the carbon credit system. 

Technological innovation

Seventy-three per cent of passengers already agree to share their biometric data in favour of greater efficiency. The international biometric digital identity will enable the integration of control processes for security at walking pace already on the means of transport from the city to the gate, transforming airport transit in an automated, mobile and contactless manner. A single digital source will confirm identity, health, passport, travel info and visas, but regulators and industry will have to establish sharing policies while maintaining data security and protection.

The deployment of AI, IoT and machine learning will enable an improved management of operations, as well as baggage tracking without paper and tags or with electronic tags. Large lobbies for sorting will no longer be necessary and the development of digital twins will favour effective, real-time predictive management from a control room.

3D printing can facilitate maintenance, drones will be able to monitor the status of systems and aircraft, while a fleet of robots will be at the service of customers for delivery or to clean environments. 

Intermodal connectivity

Electrification and automation will require coordination between airports, flight operators and public transport agencies, such as the railways. Integrated investment and connection strategies would favour community hubs, connected to different types of mass transport.

The use of cars to the airport would be discouraged, reducing the importance of parking as a source of revenue in favour of specialised terminals with dedicated access from the city centre to the gate seamlessly and multimodally, to reduce traffic and inefficiencies.

This will also happen with the integration in the infrastructure of vertiports for the development of Urban Air Mobility thanks to the deployment of eVTOLs. Such a system will be able to connect neighbouring cities and ultra-fast rail networks, offering more options at inter-regional level. In the long term, it is also possible to imagine greater integration between cargo and passenger mobility, particularly for tourist destinations that suffer from seasonal variations. 

Changing work

About 54 per cent of the 11.3 million people working in aviation are airport employees, but by 2021 the aviation workforce was 43 per cent below pre-Covid levels and has yet to catch up. The pilot shortage is a long-term trend, as 60,000 additional pilots are required by 2032.

All this threatens to limit the growing demand for travel, although automation may increasingly come to support a smaller, customer service-focused workforce. The skills required will be oriented towards soft skills on the passenger side and on the operational side with a focus on digital (data science, AI), cybersecurity, engineering and IT.

With four different generations of workers, airports will have to collaborate with universities to create interest and facilitate recruitment but at the same time encourage upskilling and reskilling of existing staff. 

The passenger experience

The image is that of real airport-cities (‘aerotropolises’) in terms of economy and infrastructure that will increasingly become part of the journey, with urban campuses equipped with offices, hotels, leisure offers, connected in different ways.

The expansion of airport capacity will require investments especially in the Middle East and Asia ($2.4 trillion, ACI World estimates). The interior spaces will be transformed, but due to an infrastructural legacy, some slipways will need time to integrate new functions into the architecture and revise the design. 

The disappearance of check barriers will provide new retail, relaxation and experience areas (cinemas, swimming pools, virtual reality gaming areas...) for new commercial and sales revenue opportunities. Lounges will grow in popularity, while long waits in the boarding queue will become a memory, thanks to the virtual queue service.

Personalised, on-demand, contactless and efficient: a tailor-made, enjoyable and environmentally friendly end-to-end journey is the goal that drives innovation and change at airports around the world.